To wean off the current unemployment scourge, Nigeria must create at least 27 million new formal jobs by the year 2030—equivalent to 4.5 million jobs annually, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) forecast.
The projection takes into cognisance the country’s working-age population, estimated to rise to 168 million within the decade.
NESG’s projection is contained in the new report titled “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria,” launched on Monday at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31) in Abuja.
To avert the looming unemployment crisis, the NESG report called for an urgent and coordinated national response to tackle unemployment, raise productivity, and drive economic transformation.
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It warned that without decisive action, unemployment and underemployment could double by the end of the decade, trapping millions of Nigerians in low-skilled, low-paying, and vulnerable work.
According to the NESG, the future of Nigeria’s workforce depends on how quickly the country can move from a “hustle economy” dominated by informal activities to one that delivers decent and productive employment.
Speaking to the report, Mr Niyi Yusuf, Chairman of the NESG, said Nigeria’s next phase of reform must focus on job creation, productivity, and inclusive growth.
“The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms in ways that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion, while simultaneously laying the foundations for long-term transformation that secures prosperity for every Nigerian,” Yusuf said.
He stated that while past policies had concentrated on macroeconomic stabilisation, the time has come to translate those efforts into sustained job creation and real improvements in living standards.
Presenting the report, Dr Wilson Erumebor, Senior Economist at the NESG, said the jobs crisis in Nigeria has gone beyond the question of employment numbers and now represents a fundamental development challenge.
“This is not just a labour market issue; it is a huge development challenge,” Erumebor said. “Without decisive reforms to create decent and productive jobs, an entire generation risks being trapped in vulnerable work that neither lifts families out of poverty nor moves the nation forward.”
He warned that the structure of Nigeria’s economy has created a situation where the vast majority of citizens depend on informal, insecure work to survive.
“The weak private sector capacity and reliance on the government for wage employment in some states have left millions of Nigerians with the option of finding work in the informal economy,” he said. “The informal sector has become the default employer, absorbing a significant share of the country’s workforce.”
Erumebor noted that informal jobs, often characterised by low pay, limited security, and minimal productivity, accounted for 92.2 per cent of total employment in 2023 and rose to 93 per cent in the second quarter of 2024.
He described this trend as alarming, adding that it reflects “the limited private and public investment in sectors that can deliver quality jobs at scale.”
Citing data from the report, Erumebor revealed that “a review of informality across the country shows that in more than 18 Nigerian states, informal employment accounts for over 94 per cent of total employment. In states such as Kebbi, Abia, Benue, and Borno, the shares are as high as 98 per cent, 97.4 per cent, 97.3 per cent, and 97.3 per cent, respectively.”
According to him, “this scale of informality has huge implications. Not only does it limit the country’s productivity growth, but it also undermines revenue mobilisation, particularly taxes.”
He added that workers in the informal economy “often lack social protection, healthcare, pensions, and legal rights, leaving them highly vulnerable to economic shocks. For many workers, daily earnings are not stable, and job security is not guaranteed.”
To tackle these challenges, the report introduced the Nigeria Works Framework, a blueprint designed to reposition Nigeria’s economy around productivity, enterprise, and inclusive growth.
The framework lays out a comprehensive Jobs and Productivity Agenda, focusing on the development of skills for productivity, sectoral engines of growth, enterprise-led development (especially for small businesses), upgrading the informal economy, strengthening data and institutional systems, and promoting productivity as the foundation of national prosperity.
According to the report, the framework will serve as a guide for policymakers, the private sector, and development partners to create quality jobs and raise living standards over the next decade.
Erumebor said the NESG envisions “a Nigeria where productivity becomes the central metric of national competitiveness—tracked, measured, and elevated as the foundation of shared prosperity.”
The report identified manufacturing, construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services as the sectors with the greatest potential for large-scale job creation and productivity growth.
It stressed that investing in these sectors could accelerate industrialisation, drive innovation, and generate millions of decent jobs, particularly for young Nigerians entering the labour market each year.
The NESG urged the Federal Government, state governments, and the private sector to treat job creation and productivity improvement as national priorities, noting that these are the true pillars of economic resilience and social stability.
“The scale of the challenge demands bold, coordinated action,” the report stated. “Nigeria must adopt a productivity-led growth strategy that expands decent work opportunities and ensures that no citizen is left behind.”
The report also reaffirmed the NESG’s commitment to supporting the implementation of practical policy measures that will strengthen the link between economic growth and employment outcomes.
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