Nigeria’s business environment recorded moderate but significant improvement in October 2025 as the Business Performance Index climbed to 111.3 points in October, an increase of 3.4 points from September 2025.
This is according to the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM).
The report shows stronger optimism across major sectors, despite lingering structural challenges such as poor power supply, policy uncertainty, high operating costs, and insecurity.
On a year-on-year basis, business performance jumped 34.5 points compared to October 2024, reflecting broad-based improvements in production, demand, and corporate earnings.
However, businesses continued to face major constraints, including limited access to finance, rising rental costs, policy ambiguity, erratic electricity supply, and security concerns—issues that have consistently weakened the operating environment.
All major sectors remain in expansion region
The report noted that all five broad economic activities remained above the 100-point expansion threshold: Manufacturing: 111.3 (+8.8), Trade: 115.4 (+7.8), Non-Manufacturing: (115.0), Agriculture: (111.4), and Services (111.0).
Modest improvements in investment, exports, access to credit, and prices further boosted confidence, indicating a more favourable environment for capital formation and foreign trade. Although input prices rose and business costs increased, the pace of increase was slower, signalling a gradual easing of inflationary pressure.
“By sector, the Trade sector recorded the highest optimism, while the Services sector showed the weakest confidence in future performance,” the report stated.
The Agriculture BCM Index rose to 111.4 points, up from 107.3 in September. A bumper harvest, especially in Crop Production and Agro-Allied industries, played a crucial role in stimulating activity.
Improved seed varieties, government support programmes, easing inflation, and a more stable exchange rate all contributed to the sector’s growth.
The Manufacturing sector posted a strong rebound, rising from 102.5 points in September to 111.3 points in October. Key sub-sectors that returned to expansion include:
- Food, Beverage & Tobacco
- Chemical & Pharmaceutical
These sub-sectors account for over 40% of manufacturing output, explaining the sector-wide improvement.
Only three sub-sectors — Wood & Wood Products, Non-Metallic Products, and Basic Metal, Iron & Steel — contracted during the period.
The Non-Manufacturing BCM index grew to 115.0 points, up from 114.5 in September, reversing the temporary slowdown experienced earlier.
Sub-sectors such as Construction, Natural Gas, and Oil & Services all expanded.
Services Sector Maintains Growth but Needs Support
The Services BCM Index increased to 111.0 points, up from 108.5 in September. Improved macroeconomic stability, particularly:
- Moderating inflation
- Stabilising exchange rates
helped lift business activity across the sector.
While all six sub-sectors stayed in expansion territory, two — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services and Other Services — recorded slower growth.
Given the sector’s central role in job creation and GDP contribution, the report warns that urgent policy actions are needed to sustain momentum. These include infrastructure upgrades, improved access to finance, strengthened security, and streamlined regulations.
Future outlook stays positive despite slight decline
The Future Business Expectation Index recorded a marginal decline to 132.9 points, down from 134.5 points in September 2025.
Despite this, optimism remains far higher than the 98.0 points documented in October 2024, showing that companies still expect stronger conditions in the months ahead.
Among the sectors, the Trade sector reported the highest optimism, while the Services sector recorded the weakest future confidence.
What This Means
The report paints a cautiously optimistic picture of Nigeria’s economic direction, one that signals gradual recovery and renewed private-sector confidence, but also highlights the persistent structural bottlenecks limiting sustained growth.
The fact that all major sectors remained in the expansion region indicates that Nigeria’s business environment is stabilising after months of uncertainty. The strongest gains in Manufacturing, Trade, and Agriculture suggest that both production and domestic demand are improving, a positive sign for GDP growth heading into the last quarter of 2025.
The Future Business Expectation Index of 132.9 points, though slightly down from September, remains substantially higher than 2024 levels, showing that businesses expect better profits, rising consumer demand, and stronger cash flow in the months ahead. This optimism could translate into increased private investment if the government sustains macroeconomic stability and strengthens policy credibility.
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