TikTok Shop has rolled out a new feature that allows users to purchase digital gift cards, making it easier to help friends and family buy from the millions of products on the app.

​The feature was strategically launched during the holiday season — a high-stakes period for the company’s shopping division as it aims to prove its value in the market. ​This move into digital gifting positions TikTok Shop to compete more directly with e-commerce giants like Amazon and eBay, both of which offer gift card options. TikTok Shop has also recently expanded into luxury retail, another move to solidify its footing in e-commerce.

Users can load the gift cards with anything from $10 to $500. What sets these cards apart is the ability to personalize them using a wide variety of animated designs. There are also animations for thank you cards, birthdays, weddings, and other occasions.

Gift cards are delivered via email, and recipients must have a TikTok account. Once redeemed, the card’s value is instantly credited to their TikTok Balance. Recipients can reply with a thank-you note or even send a gift card in return.

However, the gift cards can only be purchased in the U.S. for now.

Image Credits:TikTok Shop

TikTok said it plans to add features that let users personalize gift cards more. By early 2026, users will be able to record or upload video messages to attach to their digital gift cards. A company spokesperson said the experience will also include an “interactive unboxing that captures their reaction in real-time,” but declined to share further details.

The launch of digital gift cards comes on the heels of a significant milestone for TikTok Shop: Over the four days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the app recorded sales of more than $500 million in the U.S.

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However, despite this achievement, TikTok Shop faces uncertainty as the sale of the app’s U.S. operations to an American investor group looms. If a sale doesn’t occur, TikTok faces a potential ban in the country. President Trump has extended the deadline to January 23, 2026, leaving the app’s future in the U.S. hanging in the balance.

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Elon Musk spent Sunday being driven through Dubai’s streets by Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. It wasn’t a joyride. The Tesla and SpaceX chief was there cementing partnerships that signal where global tech power is shifting — away from increasingly hostile Western markets and toward the Middle East’s open chequebook.

The visit included back-to-back meetings with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi and Sheikh Hamdan in Dubai, focused on artificial intelligence, space exploration, and advanced technologies. According to Sheikh Hamdan’s X (formerly Twitter), the Crown Prince personally toured Musk through the city, discussing “space, technology and humanity” before ending at his majlis in Nad Al Sheba.

The timing reveals everything. Musk’s net worth hit between $648 billion, according to Bloomberg, and $749 billion, according to Forbes, this month, making him the first person to cross $700 billion. But while his wealth soars, his companies face mounting resistance elsewhere. Tesla sales collapsed 50% in Europe in April 2025 amid boycotts tied to Musk’s political alignment. In the US, the Cybertruck stumbles. Meanwhile, Dubai moves forward with the Dubai Loop.

Announced at February’s World Government Summit, the 17-kilometer underground transit system will feature 11 stations and transport over 20,000 passengers per hour at speeds up to 160 km/h. It is being developed through a partnership between Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority and Musk’s The Boring Company. Operations are expected to begin in Q2 2026, according to UAE AI Minister Omar bin Sultan Al Olama, who attended Sunday’s meetings alongside Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed.

This isn’t exploratory. It’s execution. While US and European regulators debate AI governance and antitrust actions, the UAE builds. Sheikh Hamdan emphasized that the country’s legislative frameworks, strategic partnerships, and investment in human capital continue to inspire innovation — code for “we move fast without the friction you’re facing elsewhere.”

Musk praised the UAE’s achievements in technology, AI, and space. His companies already have operational ties in the country, including space collaborations between Dubai and SpaceX and infrastructure work with The Boring Company. But this weekend’s meetings suggest both sides are doubling down. The UAE wants to cement its position as the Middle East’s undisputed tech hub. Musk wants partners who can move quickly and invest heavily while his Western markets grow complicated.

Tesla is losing the European market — here’s why

Despite, battery-electric vehicle sales across Europe growing, Tesla’s sales shrunk.

What we’re watching is geographic diversification disguised as a partnership. As regulatory environments tighten in the West and consumer sentiment shifts, the Gulf presents an alternative: less oversight, more ambition, faster timelines. Whether that produces better outcomes remains to be seen. But the capital is flowing, the projects are launching, and Musk is showing up in person.

The broader implication? The Middle East isn’t just participating in the global tech race anymore — it’s competing to host it.

Updated

December 22, 2025

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UK MPs have raised concerns about the government’s contracts with Palantir after an investigation published in Switzerland highlighted allegations about the suitability and security of its products.

The investigation by the Zurich-based research collective WAV and the Swiss online magazine Republik details Palantir’s efforts, over the course of seven years, to sell its products to Swiss federal agencies.

Palantir is a US company that provides software to integrate and analyse data scattered across different systems, such as in the health service. It also provides artificial intelligence-enabled military targeting systems.

The investigation cites an expert report, internal to the Swiss army, that assessed Palantir’s status as a US company meant there was a possibility sensitive data shared with it could be accessed by the US government and intelligence services.

British MPs have voiced concerns over the US data company in light of the report.

“Palantir … is an organisation that the British government, in terms of the NHS, in terms of contracts, should stay very far away from … I think the Swiss army is right to be suspicious,” said the Labour MP Clive Lewis.

The government “needs to undertake transparent due diligence” on the conduct of Palantir and other big tech companies, said Rachael Maskell, the MP for York Central.

“I know there were certainly questions in the NHS about Palantir’s capabilities. It’s clearly been handed a lot of money to do the federated data platform. I, as a politician, want to know that these companies are making ethical choices. And if they’re not – whether around weaponry, minerals or the climate – I think we as parliament should be given greater transparency around this.”

The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer (third from left), tours the Palantir headquarters in New York in February. Photograph: Carl Court/AFP/Getty Images

The year-long investigation is based on freedom of information requests to Swiss government departments. It details how Palantir went on a seven-year “shopping trip” trying to convince Swiss authorities to use its products and was rejected at least nine times by different agencies.

In response to a query from the Guardian, a Palantir spokesperson said: “There is no basis to the claim in the report by the Swiss army about potential access to sensitive data and no truth to it whatsoever.

“We run a business that is predicated on the trust of our customers, which means we also do everything possible – from contractual, procedural, to technical controls – to ensure that our customers are in full control of their data, their operations and their decisions when using Palantir software.”

In 2020, in the early days of the pandemic, Palantir pitched its services to Swiss health authorities – while touting its work with the NHS, which had just begun to use its tools to manage Covid-19 data.

“We are already doing this in other countries, such as Great Britain, but we feel a special obligation to Switzerland and the federal chancellor,” it wrote.

Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) ultimately chose not to work with Palantir in managing the pandemic. The exact reasons for this were redacted: it hired a competitor instead. In meeting minutes obtained by the journalists, the office stated: “Problem: Communications. FOPH demands that Palantir be questioned.”

At the same time, Palantir was trying to win contracts with the Swiss army. These meetings began in 2018. In 2020, it submitted a bid for the “IT system of the army’s intelligence service” and was rejected for unspecified reasons.

In 2024, it tried again. By this time, the UK’s Ministry of Defence had signed its first £75m contract with Palantir for data tools. After a meeting between Palantir’s European head and a Swiss army commander, the army commissioned an internal report to evaluate the products Palantir was offering.

That report, authored by army experts, concluded that it remained unclear – based on their information about Palantir’s products – whether or not US intelligence would be able to access data shared with Palantir as it was a US company, despite Palantir’s official reassurances otherwise.

The finding is “explosive”, wrote the journalists. “Firstly, because it comes from a high-ranking body of the army and, secondly, because the Swiss Federal Department of Defence (VBS) employs certified cryptologists.”

Experts in the Swiss army also found other issues with Palantir’s offerings to the military, both in terms of its cost and the fact that using Palantir’s technologies might require Palantir specialists to be permanently onsite, which could “limit the army’s ability to act in crisis situations”.

The Swiss army decided not to contract Palantir. Less than a year after it commissioned the report, the UK military would sign a £750m deal with Palantir to “boost military AI and innovation”.

WAV and Republik’s findings have generated debate across Europe, especially in Germany. The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, Sinan Selen, warned European security services to be cautious in any use of US software in public comments last week without naming Palantir specifically.

An activist dressed as the US president, Donald Trump, takes part in a protest against Palantir in Berlin in September. Photograph: Omer Messinger/Getty Images

Several German states including Bavaria, Hesse and Baden-Württemberg in recent months have chosen Palantir analysis software for their police forces or, as is the case with North Rhine-Westphalia, paved a legal path toward using it or comparable services.

The MP Konstantin von Notz, an intelligence expert with the opposition Greens and former head of Germany’s parliamentary oversight committee for the secret services, has been vocal in his opposition to Palantir.

In an emailed statement to the Guardian after the Swiss revelations, Von Notz underlined his view that the German interior minister, Alexander Dobrindt, who has said he is reviewing whether to allow police across the country to use the US software, “must finally say goodbye to Palantir”.

Von Notz welcomed the Swiss decision to do without the “highly controversial US company which has close ties to Donald Trump”.

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Tonight may be your last chance to see a shooting star in 2025 – and you won’t want to miss it.

The Ursid meteor shower will reach its dazzling peak this evening, sending bright fireballs flashing through the sky.

Arriving just after the Winter Solstice, this is the perfect opportunity for budding stargazers to witness the celestial action without staying up all night.

And, with the waxing crescent moon only at five per cent of its maximum illumination, there couldn’t be a better chance to see the year’s final meteor shower.

The Ursid meteor shower will continue until December 26, but it will be at its most active tonight.

It is not typically the year’s most impressive meteor shower, with around 10 shooting stars every hour.

However, the Ursids can still offer patient sky-gazers a few surprises, with rates of 25 or more meteors in good years.

Here’s everything you need to know to see the final meteor shower of the year.

Tonight will be the last chance to see shooting stars in 2025 as the Ursid Meteor shower reaches its peak. Pictured: Ursid meteors seen over Essex 

What is the Ursid meteor shower

Although it looks like meteors fall to Earth, they are actually the product of Earth sweeping up debris.

As these chunks of rock and dust hit our atmosphere at speeds up to 43 miles per second (70 km/s), friction generates enough heat to vaporise them in a flash of light.

As Earth passes through big clouds of debris left by passing comets, the number of meteors we see dramatically increases in a period known as a meteor shower.

In the case of the Ursids, the meteors are caused by the debris from the comet 8P/Tuttle, a 2.8-mile-wide peanut-shaped chunk of ice and rock which orbits the sun every 13.6 years.

Jessica Lee, an astronomer at the Royal Observatory Greenwich, told the Daily Mail: ‘The Earth travels around the Sun in a fixed path each year.

‘The comet 8P/Tuttle also travels around the Sun in a fixed path, and as it comes in close to the Sun, it heats up, shedding more material and leaving a trail of debris in its wake.’

Since this cloud of debris is always in the same place relative to Earth, the shower always occurs at the same time of year.

At their peak, viewers with good conditions can expect to see as many as 10 shooting stars per hour, which may come in groups of bright fireballs like these meteors seen on Christmas Day over Essex

What are meteors?

A meteor is not technically a type of space rock, but rather the bright flash of light produced by falling space debris.

When a small space rock, known as a meteoroid, hits our atmosphere, friction and air pressure create an enormous amount of heat.

Eventually, this heat becomes so powerful that the rock is vaporised in a flash of glowing light. 

When the number of meteors dramatically increases for a short period, scientists call this a meteor shower.  

How to see the Ursid meteor shower

In addition to always appearing at the same time, meteor showers also always emerge from the same point in the sky, known as their radiant.

Ms Lee says: ‘They appear to originate from a point in the sky in the constellation of Ursa Minor, which is in the northern part of the sky all night long.

‘This is the constellation our north star, Polaris, is part of.’

However, the shooting stars can actually appear anywhere in the sky.

That means it is better to find a location with a wide view of the sky and keep your eyes focused on a point somewhat to the side of the radiant.

‘Travelling somewhere dark would help, with a clear view of lots of the sky,’ adds Ms Lee.

‘You’ll also need to let your eyes adjust to the dark, so don’t look at your phone or any other bright light source. The longer you wait, the better your chances, so make sure you wrap up warm.’

The Ursids will appear to emerge from the constellation Ursa Minor, but could be seen anywhere in the sky. For the best view, look to the North around midnight or in the pre-dawn hours when Ursa Minor (depicted here) is highest in the sky 

Upcoming meteor showers

Ursids: 22 December, 2025 

Quadrantids: 4 January, 2026

Lyrids: 22 April, 2026

Eta Aquariids: 6 May, 2026

Alpha Capricornids: 30 July, 2026  

Dr Shyam Balaji, astrophysics expert at King’s College London, adds: ‘The best time to view the Ursids is during the predawn hours.

‘Since the shower occurs around the winter solstice, you’ll have long nights and plenty of dark skies to enhance visibility.’

Although they are not always the year’s best shower, the Ursids can produce unexpected peaks that go well beyond their normal limits.

Dr Balaji says: ‘The Ursids are generally a sparse meteor shower, producing about 5 to 10 meteors per hour under ideal conditions. 

‘However, it has had notable outbursts in the past, such as in 1945 and 1986, when up to 100 meteors per hour were observed. This unpredictability keeps skywatchers interested.’

One of the best parts about watching a meteor shower is that you don’t need any special equipment at all to enjoy it.

In fact, any telescopes or binoculars will only restrict your field of view and make it harder to see the meteors.

Unfortunately, the Met Office weather forecast for tonight does not look exceptionally promising.

Unfortunately, the weather tonight will not be ideal for stargazing. The Met Office forecasts cloud cover (left) and some rainfall (right) around midnight 

The next opportunity to see shooting stars will be on the night of January 4, when the Quadrantid meteor shower reaches its peak. Pictured: The Quadrantid Meteors over Northumberland 

Fairly heavy cloud cover is forecast over the entire UK until December 24.

However, conditions should remain dry so you may be able to catch a break in the clouds for some late-night star watching.

If you do miss the Ursid meteor shower tonight, the next best opportunity will be the Quadrantids, which reach their peak on January 4.

The Quadrantids are one of the year’s best meteor showers, famous for their intense burst of bright fireballs.

However, the exceptionally short peak lasts only a few hours, making this shower the most challenging to observe.

After that, you will need to wait three months for the Lyrids to reach their peak on April 22.

These will be followed by the Eta Aquariid meteor shower, which peaks on May 6 with around 40 meteors per hour.

Explained: The difference between an asteroid, meteorite and other space rocks

An asteroid is a large chunk of rock left over from collisions or the early solar system. Most are located between Mars and Jupiter in the Main Belt.

A comet is a rock covered in ice, methane and other compounds. Their orbits take them much further out of the solar system.

A meteor is what astronomers call a flash of light in the atmosphere when debris burns up.

This debris itself is known as a meteoroid. Most are so small they are vapourised in the atmosphere.

If any of this meteoroid makes it to Earth, it is called a meteorite.

Meteors, meteoroids and meteorites normally originate from asteroids and comets.

For example, if Earth passes through the tail of a comet, much of the debris burns up in the atmosphere, forming a meteor shower.

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Samsung just gave Google Gemini a new home, and it’s not on your phone. The tech giant announced today it’ll unveil kitchen appliances powered by Google’s AI at CES 2026, marking the first time Gemini will appear in home appliances. The lineup includes upgraded bespoke AI refrigerators, over-the-range microwaves, slide-in ranges, and a new AI Wine Cellar, all launching at the Las Vegas tech showcase from January 6-9.

The shift centers on what Samsung calls “AI Vision,” a camera-based system enhanced by Google Gemini and Google Cloud. Think of it as giving your refrigerator eyes and a brain. The tech currently recognizes 37 food items like fresh fruits and vegetables, but with Gemini’s help, Samsung is promising more accurate identification and broader functionality. Users can check what’s in their fridge, get recipe suggestions, and manage ingredients without manually tracking everything.

Samsung’s also betting big on wine enthusiasts. The new Bespoke AI Wine Cellar uses a top-mounted camera to recognize wine labels and track bottles automatically through the SmartThings AI Wine Manager. The system can even identify which shelf and compartment each bottle occupies, so you’re not hunting through your collection.

Which other Samsung home appliances are getting AI upgrades?

Beyond the kitchen, Samsung is rolling out a full smart home lineup. The Bespoke AI Laundry Combo gets upgraded AI Wash & Dry+ that uses multiple sensors to detect fabric types, including Outdoor and Denim, and adjust water, detergent, and drying cycles automatically.

The Bespoke AI AirDresser introduces Auto Wrinkle Care with dual steam systems for quick garment refreshing. The flagship Bespoke AI Jet Bot Steam Ultra robot vacuum, powered by a Qualcomm Dragonwing processor, now recognizes humans, pets, cables, and rugs through deep learning-based object detection.

Image credit: Samsung

Samsung’s TV lineup is also expanding. The company announced a Micro RGB display range spanning 55 to 115 inches, featuring 4K AI Upscaling Pro and Micro RGB HDR Pro for enhanced color precision across premium home viewing.

“Samsung will reach a new level of innovation through this collaboration with Google Cloud,” said Jeong Seung Moon, Executive Vice President and Head of R&D at Samsung’s Digital Appliances division.

How is LG approaching AI-powered home appliances differently?

LG is taking a different route but with the same goal. The company is marking the 10th anniversary of its SIGNATURE brand with an expanded 10-product lineup powered by AI Core-Tech. At the center is the new LG SIGNATURE refrigerator featuring conversational AI based on Large Language Model technology.

The 6.8-inch LCD display supports natural-language interactions for tailored suggestions. The AI Fresh feature even monitors temperature fluctuations based on user patterns and pre-cools the interior up to two hours before anticipated door openings.

The LG SIGNATURE Smart InstaView refrigerator goes a step further with ThinQ Food, using internal cameras to identify ingredients, suggest recipes, and offer creative substitutions. When not in use, the T-OLED InstaView panel displays elegant visuals, transforming the kitchen into an expressive space.

Image Credit: LG

For cooking, LG’s SIGNATURE Oven Range introduces Gourmet AI, which uses an AI camera to identify more than 85 dishes and automatically applies the optimal cooking settings, including temperature, time, and mode, so you don’t have to program it manually. The AI Browning feature monitors bread as it bakes and sends a notification through the ThinQ app when it reaches the preset level of doneness. The connected smartphone features include real-time monitoring, time-lapse recaps, and easy social media sharing.

What does this mean for the future of smart homes?

Both companies are pushing AI beyond novelty into genuine utility. Samsung’s collaboration with Google and LG’s integration of conversational AI represent a broader industry shift—AI as a daily assistant rather than a standalone feature. The technology is meant to simplify meal planning, reduce food waste, and make homes smarter without requiring constant user input.

Whether consumers want AI tracking their groceries, cooking habits, and daily routines is another question. The privacy concerns in both announcements remain unaddressed for now. But if CES 2026 is any indication, the smart home market is betting they will. Visitors at both companies’ booths in Las Vegas will be the first to see these systems in action, and that’s where the real test begins.

Samsung Galaxy S26 leaks point to a risky year of stagnation for the smartphone giant

Early Galaxy S26 leaks suggest Samsung is leaning heavily on recycled designs, raising questions about whether brand loyalty alone can carry its flagship lineup into 2026.

Updated

December 22, 2025

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I love playing video games, but what interests me most as a journalist are the ways in which games intersect with real life. One of the joys of spending 20 years on this beat has been meeting hundreds of people whose lives have been meaningfully enhanced by games, and as their cultural influence has grown, these stories have become more and more plentiful.

There is another side to this, however. A couple of decades ago, video games were mostly either ignored or vilified by governments and mainstream culture, leading to an underdog mentality that has persisted even as games have become a nearly $200bn industry. As their popularity has grown, so have their political and cultural relevance. And the ways in which games intersect with real life are now coloured by the economic and political realities of our times.

When I look back on this year’s happenings in the world of games, I see a lot of positives. A theme of the past few years has been comparatively small-scale games outperforming expensive blockbusters: the best examples this year have been the now multi-award-winning Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, and Hollow Knight: Silksong, which has sold seven million copies. Despite year-long discussions over the finer points of what counts as “indie” and how many people really contribute to games made by “tiny” teams – a lot of them use contractors, who deserve to be acknowledged – the point remains that it is very possible to make brilliant and creative games to extremely high standards without a $100m budget, and that is something to be celebrated.

Smaller-scale wins … Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Photograph: Kepler Interactive

The Nintendo Switch 2 was also (finally) announced and released this year, and has been very well received despite Trump’s best efforts to scupper its launch with tariff drama. Having a new console to enjoy tends to revive one’s enthusiasm for games, and though the Switch 2 didn’t feel enormously different from the original Switch, when I go back to my old machine now I really feel the difference.

But the broader story of 2025 is of a games industry reckoning with the same late-capitalist, techno-feudalistic forces that are threatening every creative industry. Wealth continues to concentrate at the top, while workers continue to face huge instability: more than 5,000 games industry jobs have been lost this year, and have several studios, including Monolith Productions. AI disruption is everywhere, meanwhile, as companies try to force their workforces to justify immense investments in the as-yet-unprofitable technology. AI-generated artwork and voiceovers have made their way into some of this year’s more successful games, and the pushback has been vociferous.

All this has led to much greater visibility for video game workers’ unions. In March, United Videogame Workers formed in the US and Canada, part of the Communications Workers of America. (They could be found protesting outside the Game Awards earlier this month.) In the UK, the firing of 30 staff from Rockstar Games pushed the UK’s IWGB Game Workers Union into the spotlight. Unionisation is slowly becoming more common even in the US, where there is not a strong culture of workplace organisation.

Protesters at the Rockstar Games office in Edinburgh in November. Photograph: Lesley Martin/PA

Another theme of the past few years has been consolidation: when Microsoft acquired Activision in 2023, it made me feel very uneasy about the concentration of economic power. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been buying its way into the games industry for years via esports partnerships and companies such as Savvy Games Group and Scopely, but this year it was kicked into high gear by a $55bn deal for EA. The Saudis also bought Niantic, makers of Pokémon Go, in March. (If you are wondering why the PIF is quite so ethically troubling, and how these video game investments form part of a strategy to whitewash the country’s image and that of its royal family, Eurogamer’s interview with Human Rights Watch from earlier this year is an essential read.)

What we see here is money and power concentrating in the video game world in the same way as in the wider world. And games have immense power to influence people’s thoughts and attitudes: the most powerful people in the world have started to realise this. (Even Elon Musk sees the value of appropriating game credibility: he was discovered to be a fake gamer in January after boasting about his Path of Exile 2 character online.) Why else would the Trump administration be tweeting AI-generated images of the president as Halo’s Master Chief? Or using Pokémon and Halo memes to recruit for ICE? Why else would rightwing agitators continue to feed culture war spats over a black samurai in Assassin’s Creed, or a non-binary actor in a PlayStation game?

Elon Musk boasted about being an elite gamer online – and turned out to be faking it Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP

I don’t pretend to be neutral on any of these things. Earlier this year, after I wrote about the Saudi acquisition of EA, I got an email from a reader asking if “some of this stuff is more editorial opinion rather than fact/news”. The answer to that is: it’s both. I will never report anything here that isn’t true, but I also won’t shy away from delivering my informed opinion on the things that go on in the gaming world. Unsurprisingly for a Guardian journalist, my values are inclusive, left-leaning and somewhat sceptical of corporate power, and of course that informs what I write in Pushing Buttons. I think that those values are vital context in these times.

Playing games is something a lot of us do for escapism, and a lot of people still react defensively if you talk about their relevance to real-world politics. Don’t we play games to get away from this stuff? Can’t we just concentrate on the hundreds of fantastic games that come out every single year, from creatively fired-up developers and artists all over the world? But games are inextricable from what’s happening in the real world. All art is. As if to symbolise this, this year’s Summer Game Fest – a showcase of forthcoming games held in LA in June – was interrupted by city-wide LA protests against ICE.

It matters, who has power. Games feel so exciting because they often give so much power to their players, to carve their own paths though their worlds. As players we leave an impression on games, and they leave an impression on us. In an ideal world, players and developers would be the people who held the power in the video games industry, too. If we enjoy video games, it is worth keeping an eye on the biggest players.

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When the dust settles on a year that included a ceasefire in the brutal war in Gaza, persistent but ultimately fruitless efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and the ramp up to a potential war in Venezuela, the biggest US national security story of 2025 may turn out to be one in which not a single shot was fired: This was the year that the US tried to declare economic war on China, and China fought back.

Early this year, in its final weeks in office, the Biden administration released its most sweeping rules yet governing the international trade of the semiconductor chips used to develop artificial intelligence models. Though these rules governed chip access for every country on earth, their primary aim was keeping the highest-end chips out of China.

This was in keeping with the concern of many US officials in both parties that the US risks falling behind China in the race to develop advanced AI, and that this race would be key to the balance of power in the 21st century.

The importance of US-China competition was an area of agreement between the first Trump and Biden administrations and there was every reason to believe the aggressive posture would carry over when President Donald Trump retook the Oval Office. Indeed, in its first month in office, the Trump administration slapped a 10 percent tariff on China for its alleged failure to combat the trade in fentanyl — those tariffs were later doubled. By April, the tariff rate was up to 145 percent, with Trump citing a “national emergency” caused by unfair Chinese trading practices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described these tariffs as effectively an “embargo.”

At the end of the 2025, things are in a very different place. The US dropped its steepest tariffs after just a few weeks, despite no major concessions from the Chinese side, and were dropped down to 20 percent after Trump held what he called a “12 out of 10” meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October. In December, Trump scrapped much of the effort to restrict China’s access to chips by approving sales of Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips in the country, despite the objections of GOP hawks on Capitol Hill. “President Xi responded very positively!” announced the president once thought of by many as a dangerously aggressive China hawk.

The events of this year could end up being viewed as the moment of a fundamental shift in the power balance between the two countries, and one that could have ramifications in conflicts to come.

“It’s been a landmark year in the US-China relationship,” said Eddie Fishman, a former State Department sanctions official who now teaches at Columbia University. Fishman suggested that the events of recent months have “fundamentally changed the balance of power. It’s made the US much more gunshy about taking aggressive steps against China.”

US officials’ optimism about their ability to play hardball with Beijing wasn’t entirely unfounded. The US has long been adept at weaponizing what Fishman calls “chokepoints” in the global economy to put pressure on adversaries. The use of the dollar in international financial transactions is one example; the fact that the most advanced semiconductor chips are designed almost exclusively by US companies and produced almost exclusively by US allies is another.

Trump’s 145 percent tariff was a blunter instrument. But in that case, US consumers were the weapon. The idea promoted by the administration was that China’s economic model, which heavily depends on exports, could not survive without selling goods to the US.

In the long run, that may be true, but in the short run, the US blinked first. The 145 percent tariffs had caused the stock market to fall and raised fears of a recession. Bessent described the policy as not sustainable.

China’s manufacturing sector had indeed taken a hit, but it was still able to negotiate tariffs down to previous levels without major concessions on any of the policies that Trump had described as “ripping off” the United States. (This is in contrast to the European Union, which agreed to a trade deal that was very favorable to the US, under pressure from Trump’s tariffs.)

China’s authoritarian political system may simply have the ability to sustain the economic impact of a trade war longer than a poll-watching US administration. Xi certainly framed it this way, saying, “For over 70 years, China’s development has relied on self-reliance and hard work…and it is not afraid of any unjust suppression.”

But China wasn’t just taking the US’s punches — it was punching back. It did this by imposing 125 percent tariffs of its own, and halted purchases of American soybeans, but more importantly, it began weaponizing a chokepoint of its own. In April, China announced it was suspending the export of a range of rare earth metals and magnets — essential materials for US automobile, electronics, and defense manufacturers — around 90 percent of which are produced in China.

This set off panic among industry leaders when it became clear they only had weeks of stock of some of these materials left, and according to the Washington Post, “provoked deep consternation at high levels of the administration,” leading to Trump’s softened tone against Beijing.

The rare earth restrictions were a “holy shit” moment, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) told reporters during a recent reporters’ roundtable hosted by George Washington University.

Warner believes the administration’s realization of the “enormous reliance we have on China in terms of critical minerals” contributed directly to the decision to lift restrictions on chip exports. He also believes it’s a problem we should have seen coming.

“That is not a Trump administration-only mistake,” Warner said, later adding, “This has been a 15-year problem.”

There’s a striking contrast between this response in Washington and the export controls on chips, which did not prompt any major policy changes in Beijing and have likely slowed China’s AI progress but haven’t prevented it from introducing new models this year.

China has used economic coercion against other countries before, often more informally than this. Norway’s salmon exports to China dropped precipitously after imprisoned dissident Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2013, for instance. China has also played the rare earths card before: it briefly suspended exports to Japan in 2010 during a flare-up of a long-running conflict over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

But its actions this year were different both in scale and how systematic they were. Notably, China appears to have been taking notes on how its rivals used economic chokepoints in recent years.

“China absolutely uses foreign policies as a template for its own,” said Cory Combs, head of supply chain research at the research firm Trivium China. “Its export controls very closely map US, and to some extent, EU export controls.”

A notable example is its “unreliable entities” list of foreign companies and organizations restricted from doing business with China because they had “made malicious remarks about China, and assisted foreign governments in suppressing Chinese companies,” which is modeled fairly explicitly on the US Commerce Department’s “entity list.” A new licensing regime announced in October restricting the export of equipment to foreign producers that make their own rare earths products appears modeled on the policies the US has used to prevent companies that use US equipment from selling microchips to China.

Analysts believe China began a much more concerted effort to build the tools and legal frameworks to counter what it sees as US economic coercion during the first Trump administration, when the US began targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei and ZTE with export controls.

This was the year Beijing got the opportunity to put its new weapons to the test.

China agreed to pause its rare earths restrictions for a year after the Trump-Xi meeting in October (and resumed buying soybeans) but hasn’t scrapped them entirely, and they could always be tightened again.

“The cat is out of the bag,” says Fishman. “This is going to be part of China’s strategy from here forward.”

This has implications beyond US-China trade policy. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where China, peeved by US weapons sales to Taiwan, a future US president meeting with the Dalai Lama, or future chip restrictions, again turns to its rare earths weapon.

Amid the recent China-friendly shift in his rhetoric, Trump has taken to referring to the two countries as the “G2,” a formulation that effectively puts China on an equal geopolitical footing to the US and also deeply irritates US allies like India.

Other countries beyond the “G2” are likely to have taken note of the dynamics this year.

“Do we really expect other countries to really stand up against China now?” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “It sends a message to the rest of the world that everyone needs to be more careful about how to deal with China.”

The Trump administration is looking for ways to blunt China’s economic weapons. One obvious way to do this would be to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths. Despite their name, these metals aren’t actually all that rare, but they’re difficult to mine, environmentally polluting, and come with low profit margins. Private investment in mining them is unlikely without the kind of generous incentives the Chinese government provides. The US is now responding after this year’s wakeup call: The Pentagon has taken an ownership share in the only company currently mining rare earths in the US, and the Trump administration has inked rare earths deals with Australia and Saudi Arabia.

But some experts believe it may take more than a decade before China-free supply chains can be developed. Despite Japan’s large-scale effort to diversify away from Chinese rare earth supplies after the 2010 crisis, it still buys about 60 percent of them from China. On the other side, China is working to reduce its reliance on the US and its allies for chips as well, but those efforts are also likely to take years.

The generous reading of both trends, from a US perspective, is that the two countries are caught in a kind of economic mutual assured destruction that could keep tensions from spiraling out of control. The less generous reading is that this year showed that when it comes to economic warfare, China has a higher tolerance for escalation than the US. And it may escalate again soon.

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As astronomers scour the universe for traces of alien life, one researcher has revealed exactly what first contact will look like.

However, that meeting won’t look like the close encounters of a Hollywood blockbuster.

According to the ‘Eschatian Hypothesis’, the first extraterrestrial civilisation we encounter is likely to be in its final moments of total collapse.

This is because, just like dying stars and supernovae, civilisations are likely to burn their brightest just before they vanish into darkness.

According to Dr David Kipping, of Columbia University, this theory means the first aliens are likely to be ‘unusually loud’.

In a YouTube video, Dr Kipping says: ‘Hollywood has preconditioned us to expect one of two types of alien contact, either a hostile invasion force or a benevolent species bestowing wisdom to humanity.

‘But the Eschatian hypothesis is neither.

‘Here, first contact is with a civilisation in its death throes, one that is violently flailing before the end.’

A scientist has revealed what our first encounter with aliens will be like, and it won’t look anything like what we have seen in movies like Close Encounters of the Third Kind (pictured)

In a new paper, due to appear in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Dr Kipping argues that finding aliens should follow the same rules as all other astronomical discoveries.

That means the first examples we discover are not typical of their class, but rather ‘rare, extreme cases’.

To understand how this ‘detection bias’ works, imagine looking up at the night sky on a clear night.

Of the thousands of stars you can see, about a third will be giant, dying stars in the final stages of their lives.

This transitory period lasts less than 10 per cent of a star’s lifetime, and only about one per cent of stars in the universe are in this giant phase.

However, since dying stars are so much brighter than their typical neighbours, they make up a huge proportion of the stars we can detect with the naked eye.

The same is even true of more extreme events such as supernovae – the vast explosions which occur when massive stars run out of fuel and collapse.

These explosions are staggeringly rare, with a Milky Way-sized galaxy only experiencing one every 50 years.

The supernovae from dying stars (pictured) are incredibly rare, but we see thousands every year because they are so bright. Scientists say that alien civilisations should be the same, in that we are more likely to find one burning brightly in its final moments – even if these are rarer 

For example, a nuclear war would produce a huge burst of energy that intelligent civilisations would be able to detect. Pictured: The Castle Union Nuclear Test, 1954

However, astronomers routinely discover thousands of supernovae every year, just because they are so incredibly bright.

According to Dr Kipping, there’s no reason that our first discovery of alien life shouldn’t follow the exact same rules.

He says: ‘So, by extension, we should expect that the first detection of an alien civilisation to be someone who is being unusually loud.

‘Their behaviour will probably be atypical, but their enormous volume makes them the most likely candidate for discovery.’

This means the first aliens we meet will be like a loud, obnoxious party guest – most people in the room don’t act like that, but the ones that do get noticed by everyone.

However, when we consider what could cause a civilisation to become loud, the situation becomes a lot more bleak.

As civilisations become more advanced, they become more efficient – wasting less energy and using the energy they do have more sustainably.

Just like how a well-maintained modern house leaks less heat than an old, crumbling home, healthy civilisations shouldn’t be giving off huge amounts of excess energy.

Join the debate

If humanity’s first alien encounter is with a dying civilization, how should we respond?

This means our first encounter with aliens won’t be a purposeful communication, like in the new film Disclosure Day. Instead, we are more likely to hear a civilisation’s last desperate shouts 

In this sense, the volume of a civilisation is a sign of ‘extreme disequilibrium’ that heralds impending collapse.

For example, the intense heat and energy released by a nuclear war would cause a planet to light up in a way that sensitive telescopes could detect.

Likewise, some scientists have suggested that aliens could even use rapid human-caused climate change as a sign of intelligent life on our planet.

Some civilisations in total free-fall may even begin broadcasting signals into space in an attempt to reach other life.

Dr Kipping has suggested that the famous ‘Wow! Signal’, detected by scientists in 1977, could have been a civilisation broadcasting one last desperate shout.

Instead of doing deep studies of promising star systems or patiently waiting for a coherent message, Dr Kipping says scientists should frequently scan the entire sky.

Brief unexplained signals, sudden flashes, or systems undergoing rapid, anomalous changes could all be signs of a loud civilisation going through collapse.

So, while it might not be a cheering thought, this theory could help find our first signs of life out amongst the stars.

WHAT IS THE FERMI PARADOX?

The Fermi Paradox questions why, given the estimated 200-400 billion stars and at least 100 billion planets in our galaxy, there have been no signs of alien life. 

The contradiction is named after its creator, Italian physicist Enrico Fermi.

He first posed the question back in 1950.

Fermi believed it was too extraordinary that a single extra-terrestrial signal or engineering project has yet to be detected in the universe — despite its immense vastness. 

Fermi concluded there must a barrier that limits the rise of intelligent, self-aware, technologically advanced space-colonising civilisations.

This barrier is sometimes referred to as the ‘Great Filter’.

Italian physicist Enrico Fermi devised the so-called Fermi Paradox in the 1950s, which explores why there is no sign of alien life, despite the 100 billion planets in our galaxy

If the main obstacle preventing the colonisation of other planets is not in our past, then the barrier that will stop humanity’s prospects of reaching other worlds must lie in our future, scientists have theorised.  

Professor Brian Cox believes the advances in science and engineering required by a civilisation to start conquering the stars will ultimately lead to its destruction.

He said: ‘One solution to the Fermi Paradox is that it is not possible to run a world that has the power to destroy itself.

‘It may be that the growth of science and engineering inevitably outstrips the development of political expertise, leading to disaster.’

Other possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox include that intelligent alien species are out there, but lack the necessary technology to communicate with Earth.

Some believe that the distances between intelligent civilisations are too great to allow any kind of two-way communication.

If two worlds are separated by several thousand light years, it’s possible that one or both civilisations would become extinct before a dialogue can be established. 

The so-called Zoo hypothesis claims intelligent alien life is out there, but deliberately avoids any contact with life on Earth to allow its natural evolution. 

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If it feels like your iPhone is glitchier than ever before, you’re not alone.

Angry Apple fans have flooded social media to complain that their expensive smartphones are plagued with tech issues.

As frustrations grow with the tech giant, some fans have even sworn that they have been driven to ditch Apple products altogether.

One infuriated commenter even took to X to vent: ‘I will never be an Apple customer again after dealing with this POS [piece of s***]!!!!’

Over the last year, iPhones have battled a surge of glitches, from failed alarms to the appearance of a ‘black dot of death’.

Likewise, many die–hard Apple fans are beginning to feel disappointed by the lack of innovation or new features in each year’s iteration of the flagship phone.

While industry analysts don’t think the iPhone will go the way of Blackberry any time soon, this could be the beginning of a bigger decline.

Mark Patrick, Director of Technical Content at Mouser Electronics, told Daily Mail: ‘Growing frustration among tech enthusiasts over bugs and glitches could dent its status as the ‘go–to’ device.’

As concerns over glitches and poor battery life mount, Apple fans are pledging to ditch the iPhone. But is this really the end for the flagship smartphone?

This year, iPhone users have reported a growing number of issues. Now, many have taken to social media to vent their frustrations 

Many former Apple fans are so frustrated that they now believe Android phones offer a better experience 

Since the release of iOS 18 and iOS 24, iPhone users have been increasingly frustrated by the number of glitches their phones experience.

Even Celebrity Traitors star Cat Burns took to social media to complain about her iPhone’s software.

The glitch, which appears to affect iPhones installed with iOS 26, turns alarms into a ‘whisper’, making users late for work and even miss their flights.

The British singer–songwriter shared her frustrations in a now–viral TikTok video where she urged Apple to ‘sort it OUT’. 

Earlier this year, another mysterious glitch baffled iPhone users as a strange black dot appeared on their screens.

While the reason for the error is unknown, owners reported needing to pay for screen replacements to resolve the issue.

Meanwhile, another particularly embarrassing glitch affecting phones on iOS 18 began dredging up users’ browsing history, including searches they would rather keep private. 

Apple users discovered that their devices displayed old adult content at unwanted moments, despite their best efforts to clear their browser history, tabs and cookies, even after making sure to view risqué content in ‘incognito mode’ only.

On TikTok, Celebrity Traitors star Cat Burns complained about an iPhone glitch which caused her alarms to ‘whisper’

Recent iPhone glitches reported by users

• Alarms triggering as a ‘whisper’
• The ‘black circle of death’
• Old browsing history resurfacing 
• Unlocking requires multiple attempts
• Music apps such as Spotify freezing 
• Random apps downloading 
• Photos appear with blacked–out portions
• Wi–Fi cutting out and then reconnecting after being unlocked 
• App icons appearing blank
• Unable to connect to mobile data 

One mortified iPhone owner even added that the glitch had accidentally revealed their private browsing habits to their mother. 

Now, Apple fans’ irritation appears to have reached boiling point, as customers take their concerns to social media.

One commenter on X wrote: ‘I can’t be more disappointed in this iPhone. I’ve had multiple glitches, and it locked up so I had to reboot it. For $1100, Apple needs to do better.’

Another added: ‘Nothing but glitches since updating. So frustrating – even unlocking the phone takes three or four attempts.’

While one furious iPhone user chimed in: ‘This current iteration of iOS is dreadful. The clunkiest, sloppiest, back dated looking pile of hot garbage, perhaps in the history of your software.’

Amidst these concerns, some users have even vowed to switch out their iPhones for Android devices.

One commenter wrote on X: ‘After my iPhone ***** out I’m getting an android. I’m tired of all the lagging and glitches and ppls voice cutting out because they’re using their iphone to call me.’

Another added: ‘I have had glitches and bugs so regularly now my Android has become my more reliable phone.’

On TikTok, many more Apple fans have complained about their iPhone’s software. One (left) said that iOS 26 caused apps to crash and their screen to go black, while another (right) said that their iPhone glitches ‘a million times a day’

Many of the issues have been reported since the release of iOS 26. This update added the new Liquid Glass display to replace Apple’s standard blocky, flat icons 

While one former Apple fan complained: ‘Dog, I don’t know what’s up with my phone lately, late text and a bunch of bs glitches. Honestly I think Android better than iPhone bro.’ 

Analysts suggest that users have been so put off by these issues because Apple previously had such an excellent reputation for reliability.

Rebecca Crook, UK CEO of IT consulting firm MSQ DX, told Daily Mail: ‘There is a current mismatch between user expectations and the product.

‘Apple has historically excelled at customer satisfaction, but the technical issues we’re seeing, from iOS 18 glitches to battery problems to touchscreen responsiveness, represent a breakdown in that core promise. 

‘The real risk isn’t extinction; it’s erosion of trust. When people are paying on average over £1,000 for a device, they expect it to work flawlessly.’

Likewise, many fans have expressed frustration that each successive generation of iPhones is more or less the same as the last.

For example, one commenter complained on X: ‘iPhone 17 is barely better than my 11 Pro Max – glitches, flickers, & poor performance. Instead of real innovation, Apple wastes time on childish gimmicks like Genmoji and Image Playground.’

Jan Stryjak, head of European research at Counterpoint Research, told Daily Mail: ‘The frustration may stem from the apparent leaps that other manufacturers, for example HONOR, vivo, OPPO and even Huawei, are making with their latest devices, particularly from a camera and battery perspective. 

On X, one former Apple fan said that they would never use products from the company again after dealing with the glitches on the iPhone 16

Analysts say that Apple fans are frustrated by the low pace of innovation in newer iPhones and the lack of improvements to battery and charging 

How to update your iPhone to iOS 26.2

To download the update on your iPhone, simply head to your iPhone Settings and scroll down to General.

Tap Software Update and you’ll see the option to install iOS 26.2 now.

The download should only take a few minutes to install.

Alternatively, select ‘Update Tonight’ to install the update when your phone is placed on charge overnight.

You can also select ‘Automatic Updates’ and set the toggles to on to ensure you always get the latest software as soon as possible.

‘The battery and charging technology are areas in which Apple and Samsung are falling significantly behind.’

However, the big question is whether these complaints will translate into a decline in sales or changes in strategy from Apple.

Ms Crook predicts that Apple may have to change their approach to meet customers’ expectations.

She says: ‘I predict that Apple may move away from rigid annual releases toward a more flexible product cadence – similar to what they’ve done with iPad.

‘We may see Apple transition to releasing new iPhones when they have something meaningful to say, rather than releasing them because the calendar says it’s September.’

Ms Crooks used the iPhone Air as an example of the innovation that Apple is capable of when given more than a year to develop a product.

However, Mr Stryjak is less convinced that Apple needs to change its current approach.

He says: ‘The iPhone is still the preferred device for most youth segments around the world, and Apple has arguably the most loyal fanbase of any smartphone manufacturer all tied into a very tight–knit ecosystem. 

Despite user frustrations, industry data suggests that the iPhone is selling better than ever. This means Apple is unlikely to change its strategy anytime soon. Pictured: Apple CEO Tim Cook 

‘Exiting that ecosystem is not straightforward, so we don’t expect a major exodus any time soon.’

In fact, Counterpoint Research’s data suggests that Apple is actually on course for its best year of sales in a very long time. 

The iPhone 16 was the best–selling smartphone globally between July and September, accounting for four per cent of all smartphone sales.

By next year, Counterpoint Research expects Apple to dethrone Samsung as the world’s biggest smartphone maker for the first time in over a decade. 

Driven by continued sales of the iPhone 17 as customers rush to upgrade their old devices, Apple is expected to have delivered almost 20 per cent of all smartphone sales this year and could continue to grow. 

So, despite massive disappointment over the flop of Apple Intelligence and increased user frustration, Apple is unlikely to turn its back on the iPhone any time soon. 

Apple did not respond to a request for comment.  

THE TRILLION DOLLAR RISE OF APPLE

1976: Founders Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne created the company on April 1 1976 as they set about selling computer kits to hobbyists, each of which was built by Wozniak.

The first product was the Apple I. 

1977: Apple released the Apple II in June, which was the first PC made for the mass market. 

Steve Jobs unveils Apple Computer Corporation’s new Macintosh February 6, 1984 in California.

1981: Jobs became chairman.  

1984: The Macintosh was introduced during an ad break for the Super Bowl and later officially unveiled during a launch event. It was discontinued a year later and Jobs left the firm.

1987: Apple released the Macintosh II, the first colour Mac.

1997: Apple announces it will acquire NeXT software in a $400 million deal that involves Jobs returning to Apple as interim CEO. He officially took the role in 2000.  

The then Chief Executive Officer of Apple, Steve Jobs, with the iPhone

2001: Apple introduced iTunes, OS X and the first-generation iPod.

The first iPod MP3 music player was released on October 23, 2001, at an event in Cupertino and was able to hold up to 1,000 songs.

2007: Apple unveils the iPhone. 

2010: The first iPad was unveiled.

2011: Jobs resigned in 2011 due to illness, handing the CEO title to Tim Cook. Jobs died in October from pancreatic cancer.

2014: Apple unveiled the Apple Watch. It also unveiled its first larger iPhones – the 6 and 6 Plus. 

2015: After purchasing Beats from Dr Dre, Apple launched Apple Music to compete with Spotify and other music streaming services. 

2016: Apple returned to its roots and announced the 4-inch iPhone SE. Meanwhile, the firm is embroiled in a legal battle with the FBI, involving the agency demanding access to the locked phone used by Syed Farook, who died in a shootout after carrying out a deadly December attack in San Bernardino, California with his wife. The court order was dropped on March 28 after the FBI said a third party was able to unlock the device.  

2017: Apple introduces the iPhone X, which removes the home button to make way for a futuristic edge-to-edge screen design and a new FaceID system that uses advanced sensors and lasers to unlock phones with just the owner’s face.    

Apple CEO Steve Jobs speaks at an Apple event at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif.

2018: In a first for the company, Apple introduces new features in its latest operating system, iOS 12, that encourage users to manage and spend less time on their devices. The move was spawned by a strongly worded letter from shareholders that urged the firm to address the growing problem of smartphone addiction among kids and teenagers. 

2019: In January, Apple reports its first decline in revenues and profits in a decade. CEO Tim Cook partly blamed steep declines in revenue from China.

2020: In March, Apple closes all its bricks and mortar retail stores outside of China in response to coronavirus. 

2021: In an online virtual event in April CEO Tim Cook declared Apple’s goal of becoming carbon neutral for Earth Day. Later in the year the iPhone 13 was announced. 

2022: In September the iPhone 14 was announced. One of the new features included a new sensor to detect if a user had been in a car crash as well as an improved camera system. 

2023: Apple brought back its ‘Home Pod’ after the first generation was discontinued. The ‘Home Pod’ can be seen as an alternative to Amazon’s Alexa or Google Home as it is powered by voice commands. 

2024: Apple makes its first steps into artificial intelligence with the release of Apple Intelligence. The features are not all released at once with many delayed until the following year. 

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First published 21 Dec, 2025

Thanks for reading The Next Wave this year.

Your engagement hasn’t just been a metric because it has shaped these conversations every Sunday. I want to specifically thank my co-writers Adonijah Ndege, Frank Eleanya and Muktar Oladunmade. They are the intellectual muscle behind these stories and the ones who help me find the signal in the noise.

As we look toward 2026, the tech ecosystem on the continent is finally shedding its skin. We are moving past the era of easy capital and vanity metrics into a period of hard institutionalisation. 2026 will be the year when regulators stop observing and start actively rewiring the digital economy.

And while most analysts predict a simple funding recovery, here is what we think people are missing.

First, the standalone fintech app is becoming a relic, so success in 2026 will belong to the invisible companies building the plumbing for non-tech sectors like agriculture and logistics.

We also expect the hype around AI to hit a wall. Without massive local investment in power and data centres, Africa risks becoming a mere consumer of foreign tools rather than a creator.

Finally, the big exit might be a myth because we expect to see more local consolidation where African giants acquire each other to survive because the global buyers are looking elsewhere.

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The year in review: Your top five

This final edition looks back at our top five pieces that resonated most with you.

1. The telecom that built a bank by accident

This piece traced Safaricom’s evolution from a telecom operator to the backbone of Kenya’s financial system. M-PESA is so large now that the company handles anti-money laundering and fraud detection like a traditional bank even though that was never the original plan.

2. A founder’s personal assets as collateral for failure

We looked at the startup ecosystem in China and how redemption rights can leave founders personally liable for failed ventures. When homes and savings can be seized, the stakes of entrepreneurship change completely. This serves as a sobering warning for the African venture landscape.

Next Wave continues after this ad.

Africa’s Business Heroes celebrates the bold innovators shaping the continent’s future. Join us in Kigali on 12-13 December for the 7th ABH Summit & Grand Final where Africa’s Top10 entrepreneurs take the stage with game changing solutions. Don’t miss the insights, connections, and inspiration.

Register now!

3. Digitising Danfo payments could unlock a 375 million dollar opportunity

This essay focused on Nigeria’s informal transport sector. Moving fare payments from cash to digital platforms could bring transparency to millions of journeys and create a massive new market for payment providers.

4. Kenyan government services turning into pay-to-access schemes

We examined concerns around Kenya’s eCitizen platform. The core argument was that charging premium fees for faster public services risks creating a tiered system where essential rights are locked behind a paywall.

5. Realising regional expansion for African startups

This edition explained why moving across borders is the hardest task for any founder. Using Twiga Foods as an example, we explored why scaling requires a deep and often painful understanding of local regulations and customer habits.

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The Future of Commerce Report: Beyond the First wave is TechCabal Insights’ annual report, launched at Moonshot by TechCabal in October 2025.

Africa’s next wave of innovation isn’t in payments or marketplaces—it’s in the “X Areas”: the overlooked, unglamorous back-office challenges holding millions of businesses back.

This report reveals where investment and innovation are heading next and what it means for founders, investors, and policymakers shaping Africa’s trade backbone.

Downloand the report here!

Thank you for reading, replying and sharing this year. We will be back on 10 January 2026.

Happy holidays!

Kenn Abuya

Senior Reporter, TechCabal

Thank you for reading this far. Feel free to email kenn[at]bigcabal.com, with your thoughts about this edition of NextWave. Or just click reply to share your thoughts and feedback.

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